If your leaders are hearing mixed messages— “it’s still impossible to hire,” “we’re getting applicants but not the right ones”—that’s not confusion. That’s the reality of a market where demand hasn’t disappeared, but hiring processes are uneven.
Each month, Hireology’s applicant tracking system processes over 1 million candidates per month. Hireology works with over 10,000 businesses to attract and hire top candidates. When we dug into the data, we found November posted less new work, while day-to-day open demand stayed basically the same: job postings opened fell from 14,594 in October to 11,542 in November, yet daily average open job postings held steady at 17,329.63 (Oct) vs. 17,343.86 (Nov). That combination is the headline: less posting activity + steady open demand = a risk of “open roles sitting open.” This is where vacancy quietly chips away at revenue, service levels, and retention.
What changed since October (and what it means)
1) New posting activity slowed
- Job postings opened: 14,594 → 11,542 (-21%)
- Evergreen jobs opened: 3,693 → 2,791 (-24%)
Why it matters: When evergreen volume drops this sharply, organizations often feel it later as “sudden shortages”—because the pipeline wasn’t kept warm.
2) Hiring dipped only slightly
- Total hires: 46,903 → 45,098 (-4%)
Why it matters: Even with fewer new postings, hiring held up—often a sign that teams were filling from existing pipelines or previously-open roles.
3) Closures fell, and “closed without hire” remains a big lever
- Postings closed: 14,559 → 11,771 (-19%)
- Closed without hires: 8,443 → 6,907
“Closed without hire” remained roughly 59% of closures (Oct: 8,443/14,559; Nov: 6,907/11,771) based on the closure counts in Hireology’s data.
Why it matters: Not every closure should end in a hire—but at this scale, you should assume there are fixable drivers: compensation alignment, schedule mismatch, slow follow-up, or unrealistic requirements.
The Signal Executives Should Act On
While new openings drop, the risk is that the organization becomes comfortable living with vacancy—until overtime, customer experience, and turnover force the issue. The fastest way to bring clarity to the loud and contradictory market: stop measuring effort (posts, applicants) and start measuring vacancy reduction and speed in the first 48 hours.
What Hireology Recommends Next
A) Protect your “always-hiring” roles
Evergreen jobs opened fell from 3,693 to 2,791. If that reduction touched high-churn, customer-facing roles, expect more volatility.
Action to take: Define a short list of roles that should always have an active pipeline—then lock that policy in by location/department.
B) Make “closed without hire” a weekly leadership review (not a recruiting footnote)
You already have the count; now you need the “why.”
Action to take: Require a close reason every time a posting closes without a hire, then review the top 2–3 reasons by department monthly. (This is where comp, schedule, and manager expectations show up fast.)
C) Win the first two days of the process
The biggest preventable losses in frontline hiring usually happen early: slow review, slow outreach, slow scheduling.
Action to take: Set a clear internal standard for priority roles (example: same-day review and outreach; interviews scheduled within 48 hours). Then inspect adherence by location.
Industry Guidance: Applications for the Real World
Automotive Retail
In dealerships, vacancy shows up as missed capacity: fewer billed hours, longer wait times, and manager overload.
Do this next:
- Keep pipelines open for revenue-throughput roles (like techs!). If evergreen job volume is down, make sure it doesn’t include these roles.
- Treat “closed without hire” in service as a root-cause problem: pay plans, shift structure, tool/cert support, and decision speed usually matter more than “more applicants.”
- Standardize manager availability: pre-block interview times weekly so scheduling doesn’t become the bottleneck.
Long-Term Care
Long-term care can’t “wait out” vacancies—staffing gaps turn into overtime, expensive agency spend, and employee burnout.
Do this next:
- Use open seats as an operational alarm bell. Daily average open seats rose to 18,531.55 in Nov —if your buildings feel strained, this is why.
- Front-load non-negotiables (license/credential, shift availability, commute tolerance) to reduce late-stage fallout that becomes “closed without hire.”
- Keep an evergreen bench for CNAs/caregivers/nurses, even if you slow down posting elsewhere.
Hospitality
Hospitality hiring is a momentum game: friction and delays create drop-off.
Do this next:
- Simplify the path to a first shift: fewer steps, faster scheduling, tight communication loops.
- Audit closures without hires for avoidable friction: unclear schedules, unclear pay, and slow manager follow-up are frequent culprits.
- Plan for seasonal whiplash: if evergreens were reduced in Nov , make sure you’re not setting yourself up for a scramble when demand swings.
The Takeaway
November didn’t show demand collapsing—it showed less posting activity while open demand stayed steady. That’s your cue to double down on the fundamentals: protect evergreen where vacancy hurts most, speed up the first 48 hours, and manage “closed without hire” like a business performance issue.
